This week, the markets have not been particularly kind to us. After starting strong with 100% gains for August, we’ve hit a patch of turbulence so far in September, with our portfolio dipping slightly into negative territory. While it’s never fun to see red in the portfolio, this is a great moment to remind ourselves that short-term fluctuations are part of the journey.
Here’s how our current positions look after this week’s market movements:
| Name | Symbol | Status | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Value | low | high | changepct | closeyest | Exit Price | Gain ($) | Gain (%)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvdia | NVDA | Entered | 8/12/2024 | $109.00 | $139.93 | 106.26 | 111.07 | -0.21 | 140.22 | HOLD | $30.93 | 28.4% |
| Technology ETF | XLK | Entered | 8/12/2024 | $207.00 | $240.69 | 205.31 | 208.91 | 0.07 | 240.53 | HOLD | $33.69 | 16.3% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc | FCX | Entered | 8/12/2024 | $41.45 | $39.19 | 41.21 | 41.95 | -0.08 | 39.22 | HOLD | -$2.26 | -5.5% |
| Advanced Micro | AMD | Entered | 8/12/2024 | $136.00 | $125.06 | 133.23 | 137.99 | -0.97 | 126.29 | HOLD | -$10.94 | -8.0% |
| Gold ETF | GLD | Entered | 9/3/2024 | $230.32 | $243.07 | 228.52 | 230.54 | 0.68 | 241.44 | HOLD | $12.75 | 5.5% |
| Apple | AAPL | Entered | 9/3/2024 | $222.77 | $259.02 | 221.17 | 229 | 0.32 | 258.2 | HOLD | $36.25 | 16.3% |
| Air Products | APD | Entered | 10/1/2024 | $291.43 | $295.08 | 291.12 | 295.72 | -0.32 | 296.02 | BUY | $3.65 | 1.3% |
| Southern | SO | Entered | 10/1/2024 | $90.88 | $82.84 | 90 | 91.77 | -0.32 | 83.11 | HOLD | -$8.04 | -8.8% |
| Silver ETF | SLV | Entered | 10/25/2024 | $30.60 | $27.14 | 30.47 | 31.02 | 0.44 | 27.02 | HOLD | -$3.46 | -11.3% |
| Disney | DIS | Entered | 11/1/2024 | $95.78 | $112.55 | 94.83 | 96.39 | -0.01 | 112.56 | HOLD | $16.77 | 17.5% |
| Technology Sector ETF | XLC | Entered | 11/1/2024 | $92.40 | $99.04 | 92.21 | 92.99 | -0.13 | 99.17 | HOLD | $6.64 | 7.2% |
| Materials Sector ETF | XLB | Entered | 11/1/2024 | $93.13 | $85.40 | 93.1 | 93.79 | -0.15 | 85.53 | HOLD | -$7.73 | -8.3% |
| Meta Facebook | META | Entered | 11/1/2024 | $567.16 | $603.35 | 562.56 | 573.67 | -0.72 | 607.75 | HOLD | $36.19 | 6.4% |
| Alphabet | GOOG | Entered | 11/1/2024 | $172.65 | $197.10 | 170.31 | 173.82 | -0.24 | 197.57 | HOLD | $24.45 | 14.2% |
| Bitwise Bitcoin ETF | BITW | Entered | 11/15/24 | $54.50 | $60.72 | 50.2 | 55 | -2.83 | 62.49 | HOLD | $6.22 | 11.4% |
| IBIT Bitcoin ETF | IBIT | Entered | 11/15/24 | $52.13 | $54.30 | 49.93 | 52.17 | -3.43 | 56.23 | HOLD | $2.17 | 4.2% |
As we can see, most of our positions have taken a dip, with the exception of XLRE (Real Estate S&P Sector ETF) and GLD (Gold). XLRE remains a bright spot in the portfolio, up 4.6%, and serving its purpose as a hedge during times of volatility. Gold also continues to perform well, with GLD up 1%. But the reality is, sectors like technology and energy—where we hold positions in NVDA, AMD, XOM, and XLE—have been under pressure this week.
Why it matters
Market dips like this are inevitable, and they can feel unsettling, but they are also part of the ebb and flow of investing. While the short-term picture may look less than ideal, it’s important to stick to the long-term strategy. The broader market is reacting to several macroeconomic factors, including:
- Interest Rate Uncertainty: As the Federal Reserve’s policy on interest rates remains a key market driver, the overall sentiment has turned cautious. While there are hopes for the Fed to eventually ease rates, the timing remains uncertain, contributing to recent market volatility.
- Sector-Specific Moves: Tech stocks like NVDA and AMD are feeling the pressure of profit-taking after their recent strong run, while energy stocks like XOM and XLE are impacted by fluctuating oil prices and global energy demand concerns.
Gold, as mentioned earlier, continues to be a key player in our portfolio, and with expectations that the Fed may ease interest rates, we anticipate GLD could provide continued resilience in the face of market headwinds.
Looking Forward
Despite this downturn, we remain optimistic. Our Early Bird Algos have not signaled any exits from these positions, which suggests they remain confident in the long-term value of these trades. In fact, we’ve just entered Apple (AAPL) and ExxonMobil (XOM) this past week, and while both are down a bit, these companies have strong fundamentals and are poised for growth over time.
What’s Next?
While it’s tempting to react emotionally during market drops, we encourage you to stick to the plan. Our Algos are designed to navigate exactly these kinds of fluctuations, and we’ll continue to monitor the markets for any necessary adjustments.
For now, our strategy remains intact: holding strong, staying diversified, and preparing for when the market turns back in our favor.
Housekeeping Update
We want to address an issue from last Friday’s Monthly Issue email. Unfortunately, our email provider had a technical issue, preventing us from sending out the Monthly Issue at the scheduled mid-day time on Friday. Their system experienced a complete outage until about 6 PM, impacting all of their clients, including us.
Because our platform initially showed that the email was sent, it took us some time to diagnose the problem. Once we realized the issue, we sent the email out using our backup platform, which is managed by our sister company. However, that email was sent after the 4 PM market close, with the original email from our primary provider going out closer to 6 PM. Hopefully you received at least one of the emails.
This unfortunately meant you would not have received the email until after the market close on Friday or even later, leaving you to not be able to get into the trades on Tuesday after the open, due to the Monday holiday.
I’ve worked in this industry for decades, and one thing I’ve learned is that consistency in recording performance is key. While there are a few ways to handle this, my philosophy over my career is that the most fair and transparent method is to use the closing price, on the day a recommendation is able to be acted upon. Of course, provided the recommendation goes out more than an hour before the market closes. For example, if I sent out an email over the weekend recommending you to take action the price for the action would be based upon Monday’s closing price. Or as in this case, with a holiday, Tuesday. This allows ample time for everyone to read, reflect, and react. I know market opens can be a little tricky on some days.
We will be looking at the portfolio and making updates based on this philosophy at some point but wanted to communicate it to the group as well.
Also starting next week on Wednesday September 11th, we will be starting our live trading room sessions.
We are always open to feedback, so if you have any thoughts or suggestions on this or anything else so far, feel free to reach out at feedback@predictivepress.com. Thank you for your understanding!
Thank you for your continued trust, and as always, we’ll be in touch with any important updates.
Happy trading!
Brad
Orlando, Florida
Brad Hoppmann
Publisher
Predictive Press
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